October 17, 2009

Joe Schaller

Las Vegas Hilton sports book versus SchallerTPR

I list below the over/under odds from the Las Vegas Hilton for '09-'10 NBA season wins. At the end of the regular season I will compare the two to see which one came closest to actual wins. Last year I was four wins better than the Hilton for the Eastern Conference yet lost to the Hilton by two wins for the combined league.

There were two teams with significant variation; I have Charlotte with seven less wins than the Hilton and Minnesota with seven and a half more. Despite their exceptional defense under Larry Brown I can't see enough talent for the Hornets to be close to mediocre.
I believe the trio of Al Jefferson, Kevin Love and Ramon Sessions to be a force to be reckoned with in the West- I've just learned that Love will likely be out for the first month though.
You may notice that my predictions reflect a stronger Western Conference.

Finals Prediction; I was surprised to see the odds for Orlando to win the East at 5 to 1 (Cleveland was almost even odds) and 12 to 1 to win the championship. I believe they will be even tougher as a playoff team, compared to regular season.
The rising young talent, depth and coaching of Portland leads me to believe they could very well finish the season strong and upset the Lakers in the West.
My pick: Orlando over Portland

wins___L V Hilton__SchallerTPR

• EAST
  
• Cleveland____60.5___60.5
  
• Orlando______57.5___60
  
• Boston______55.5___55
  
• Atlanta______44.5___41
  
• Washington__42.5___38.5
  
• Detroit______41.5___38.5
  
• Toronto_____41.5___38
  
• Chicago_____40.5___38.5
  
• Philadelphia__40.5___40.5
  
• Miami_______40.5___37.5
  
• Charlotte_____37_____30
  
• Indiana______34.5___31.5
  
• New York_____31.5___29.5
  
• New Jersey___28.5___27
  
• Milwaukee____25.5___28
  
• WEST
  
• LALakers_____61.5___59.5
  
• San Antonio___54.5___55
  
• Denver_______52.5___54
  
• Portland______52.5___53
  
• Utah________49.5___51
  
• Dallas_______48.5___49.5
  
• New Orleans__46.5___48.5
  
• Phoenix______41.5___43
  
• Golden State__35.5___35
  
• Houston_____35.5___37.5
  
• LAClippers____35.5___31
  
• OK City______35.5___33
  
• Memphis_____27.5___31.5
  
• Minnesota____25.5___33
  
• Sacramento___24.5___21.5

Total Performance Ratings-- since 1996

1. Scoring
   
2. Scoring Efficiency
   
3. Ballhandling
   
4. Rebounding
   
5. Disruptive Defense
   
6. One on one Defense
   
7. Team Defense
   
8. Team Game Pace
   
9. Schedule Strength
   
10. Projected Improvement or Decline
    
11. Teams Wins Adjustment

Ratings indicate productivity per minute played. See my feature "The TPR Formula" for more information.

• Joe Schaller
  
• 505-722-3103
  
• schaller_6@msn.com