January 1, 2009

Joe Schaller

Most Valuable Player: The player who, along with scoring efficiency, gave his team the most opportunities to score and his opponents the fewest.

TPR scale: 180+ MVP, 140+ superstar, 110+ allstar, 85+ starter, 65+ bench

Once again I cover all angles going from base TPR, add game pace and team defense and add one on one defense from data obtained from 82games.com for the final TPR.
Beyond TPR I add a minutes played bonus calculated from the percentage of team minutes played and finally add 82games.com on/off rating.

base TPR: Notable on the initial list is Devin Harris at #5 and Marcus Camby at #8. Base TPR tells only part of the story though and as we work through the other criteria we find both Devin and Marcus missing from the final top 20.

base TPR

1. Lebron James____201.5
   
2. Chris Paul_______187.8
   
3. Dwyane Wade___173.4
   
4. Kobe Bryant_____161
   
5. Devin Harris_____150.1
   
6. Brandon Roy_____147.2
   
7. Dirk Nowitzki_____146.8
   
8. Marcus Camby___142.2
   
9. Kevin Garnett____141.2
   
10. Pau Gasol_______140.6
    
11. Chauncey Billups_139.8
    
12. Tony Parker_____139.6
    
13. Al Jefferson_____139.5
    
14. Chris Bosh______139.4
    
15. Dwight Howard___139
    
16. Amare Stoudemire_137.8
    
17. Tim Duncan______135.6
    
18. Jameer Nelson___135.4
    
19. Vince Carter_____134.7
    
20. Jason Terry______134.3

Game Pace and Team Defense: Teams such as Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Dallas and Orlando get a boost while the T-Wolves' Al Jefferson falls out of the ratings as well as the Nets duo of Harris and Vince Carter taking a big hit.

Add game pace and team defense

1. Lebron James____210.7
   
2. Chris Paul_______192.1
   
3. Dwyane Wade___178
   
4. Kobe Bryant_____159.4
   
5. Dirk Nowitzki_____152.3
   
6. Brandon Roy_____151.3
   
7. Kevin Garnett____149.6
   
8. Dwight Howard___145.9
   
9. Devin Harris_____145.4
   
10. Tony Parker_____144.1
    
11. Marcus Camby___142.4
    
12. Jameer Nelson___142.3
    
13. Chauncey Billups_141.2
    
14. Tim Duncan______140.1
    
15. Jason Terry______139.8
    
16. Chris Bosh______139.4
    
17. Mike Bibby______139.2
    
18. Pau Gasol_______139
    
19. Yao Ming________137.9
    
20. Amare Stoudemire_136.8

1 on 1 defense: Defense is half the game and we see Rajon Rondo, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Joe Johnson take huge leaps onto the board of my final TPR. Atlanta now has two in the top 20 and all the powerhouse clubs are well represented.
Jameer Nelson at #15 reveals the primary reason for Orlando's rise as a top contender.

Add 1 on 1 defense for final TPR

1. Lebron James____221.2
   
2. Chris Paul_______187
   
3. Dwyane Wade___183.4
   
4. Kobe Bryant_____165.4
   
5. Dirk Nowitzki_____155.3
   
6. Brandon Roy_____154.3
   
7. Kevin Garnett____154.1
   
8. Rajon Rondo_____149.7
   
9. Dwight Howard___146.6
   
10. Zydrunas Ilgauskas_144.4
    
11. Chauncey Billups_143
    
12. Tony Parker_____141.1
    
13. Joe Johnson_____140.3
    
14. Amare Stoudemire_139.2
    
15. Jameer Nelson___138.3
    
16. Jason Terry______137.4
    
17. Mike Bibby______136.8
    
18. Pau Gasol_______136.3
    
19. Tim Duncan______136
    
20. Devin Harris_____135.8

BEYOND TPR

Minutes played bonus: Minutes played should be given significant consideration and Joe Johnson's iron man status puts him up to number 7. Others who have lost minutes to injuries slip off the list.
Jason Terry at #13 bodes well for the Mavericks who are poised to go on a roll with Josh Howard back. I'm not sure if JET has ever made the allstar team but he certainly deserves it this year.
Players who should rise on the list with more minutes include Jameer Nelson, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Paul Millsap and Deron Williams.

Add minutes played bonus

1. Lebron James____247.2
   
2. Chris Paul_______215
   
3. Dwyane Wade___210.4
   
4. Kobe Bryant_____189.4
   
5. Dirk Nowitzki_____180.3
   
6. Brandon Roy_____178.3
   
7. Joe Johnson_____173.3
   
8. Kevin Garnett____170.1
   
9. Dwight Howard___167.6
   
10. Amare Stoudemire_166.2
    
11. Rajon Rondo_____165.7
    
12. Chris Bosh______162
    
13. Jason Terry______159.4
    
14. Tim Duncan______159
    
15. Mike Bibby______157.8
    
16. Pau Gasol_______157.3
    
17. Chauncey Billups_157
    
18. Rashard Lewis___156
    
19. Al Jefferson_____154.2
    
20. Devin Harris_____153.8

On/off ratings: Finally I choose to consider on/off ratings as an indicator of value. David West has a modest 107 base TPR however rises into my top 20 with a +24.5 on/off rating. Joe Johnson completes his rise in the rankings at #5. Ray Allen's on/off rating makes him the third Celtic in the top 20.
There are no Spurs, no Jazz and no Pistons in my top 20. Surprisingly both Tim Duncan and Tony Parker carry negative on/off ratings.

Surprise teams: With Joe Johnson at #5 and the remarkable rise of Mike Bibby from the ashes the Atlanta Hawks are now a contender.
The emergence of Brandon Roy to superstar status has been key to Portland's rise.

Add on/off rating for final MVP rating

1. Lebron James____265.7
   
2. Chris Paul_______244
   
3. Dwyane Wade___233.5
   
4. Kobe Bryant_____196.2
   
5. Joe Johnson_____189.5
   
6. Kevin Garnett____186.8
   
7. Dirk Nowitzki_____184.1
   
8. Brandon Roy_____181.9
   
9. Chris Bosh______174.4
   
10. Rajon Rondo_____173.7
    
11. Dwight Howard___172.2
    
12. Rashard Lewis___170.2
    
13. Amare Stoudemire_169.9
    
14. Ray Allen_______169.8
    
15. Yao Ming_______165.8
    
16. Mike Bibby______165.7
    
17. David West_____165.5
    
18. Jason Terry______165.1
    
19. Chauncey Billups_163.4
    
20. Al Jefferson_____160.3

Conclusion: The top four are consistent on all five lists. Last year at the halfway point I said it would be difficult to catch Lebron James however both Chris Paul and Kevin Garnett ended up in a virtual 3-way tie with him. At this point Lebron seems even stronger than last year.

Total Performance Ratings-- since 1996

1. Scoring
   
2. Scoring Efficiency
   
3. Ballhandling
   
4. Rebounding
   
5. Disruptive Defense
   
6. One on one Defense
   
7. Team Defense
   
8. Team Game Pace
   
9. Schedule Strength
   
10. Projected Improvement or Decline
    
11. Teams Wins Adjustment

Ratings indicate productivity per minute played. See my feature "The TPR Formula" for more information.

• Joe Schaller
  
• 505-722-3103
  
• schaller_6@msn.com