January 15, 2009

Joe Schaller

TPR scale: 180+ MVP, 140+ superstar, 110+ allstar, 85+ starter, 65+ bench

I was right about Hedo Turkoglu 98. I could see that his 122 TPR from last year was a fluke and he would drop back down to a projected 105 level. That was one of the reasons I had the Magic projected for a disappointing 43/44 wins. I was wrong about Dwight Howard's 155 improvement from a 140 TPR though, yet the big difference for the Magic has been the huge leap to superstar status of Jameer Nelson 141 up from a projected 95 TPR. Add on Rashard Lewis 127 and Nelson effectively gives the Magic a "Big 3" comparable to the Celtics.

There are several ways to rate a teams offensive production. Points per game is often used and it is one of the most misleading. Orlando ranks seventh in points per game and fifth in John Hollinger's offensive efficiency. What I look at and is also reflected in my own TPR formula is the adjusted field goal percentage which evaluates the impact of 3-point shooting. The Magic rank second in AFG%. They also rank second in defensive AFG%, a combination you would find in a title contender.

Stan Van Gundy and other coaches are well aware of the impact of the 3-pointer and utilize it effectively as evidenced by the Magic's record breaking game. With four perimeter shooters spreading the floor Dwight Howard has plenty of space to work in the middle. If you have forwards who can hit threes at a high percentage the 3-pointer offense becomes very difficult to defend. The Magic are first in three pointers made and second in percentage.
Bombs away!

Orlando Magic TPR

• Dwight Howard__155.1
  
• Jameer Nelson___141.2
  
• Rashard Lewis___127.3
  
• Hedo Turkoglu___98.2
  
• Mickael Pietrus___105.5
  
• Courtney Lee____81
  
• Anthony Johnson_73.6
  
• Tony Battie_____70.6
  
• Keith Bogans____67.6
  
• J J Redick_______65.8

Total Performance Ratings-- since 1996

1. Scoring
   
2. Scoring Efficiency
   
3. Ballhandling
   
4. Rebounding
   
5. Disruptive Defense
   
6. One on one Defense
   
7. Team Defense
   
8. Team Game Pace
   
9. Schedule Strength
   
10. Projected Improvement or Decline
    
11. Teams Wins Adjustment

Ratings indicate productivity per minute played. See my feature "The TPR Formula" for more information.

• Joe Schaller
  
• 505-722-3103
  
• schaller_6@msn.com