Schaller TPR - Nuggets and Spurs TPR

I expected the Nugs to overachieve but for different reasons. This was supposed to be a break out season for J R Smith 99 with solid support from Nene 128 and Linas Kleiza 100. It was Nene with the break out though and the acquisition of Chauncey Billups 136 has made up for the underachieving J R and the turnover prone Carmelo Anthony 106.

Despite the stability of Billups the Nugs offense is guilty of sloppy play and is 28th in turnovers. Their strong defense makes up for the miscues with their #4 ranking in creating turnovers.

Turnovers and the overrated; When judging talent the most egregious offense of the mainstream pundits is the lack of consideration of turnovers. No matter how many miscues by the likes of Carmelo, AI and Paul Pierce the only consideration seems to be points per game (no matter how many field goal attempts). If Carmelo can't get a grip on the ball George Karl might want to feature him more judiciously- like in a sixth man role.

Looking at my preseason TPR projections above the obvious keys to the second half reside in Carmelo and J R playing up to their potential. Can they set their childish egos aside though?

San Antonio; Unlike the Nuggets aside from early injuries the Spurs are almost spot-on preseason projections. Their health will be needed with a tougher schedule ahead.

A key player who has not been given much credit is Matt Bonner 111 whose 3-point shooting has been a boost to what can sometimes be a sluggish offense. When you consider that the Spurs are #2 in turnovers and #1 in assist/turnover their #6 ranking in adj fg% makes them an impressive offensive force.

The Spurs primary problem is their defense. They may be #10 in defensive adj fg% (well below previous seasons) however when you consider they are dead last in creating turnovers they become quite mediocre, which is not what you expect from traditional Spurs defense. This is where the slowness from age might be playing in. If they can't elevate their defense the Spurs will not be a factor in the playoffs.

The amazing Manu; Have you heard about the decline of Manu Ginobili 150? His TPR says otherwise. His complete game puts gunners like AI, Carmelo and Mo Williams to shame. He is more deserving of allstar selection than Tony Parker 129 yet I haven't heard a peep from the talking heads.