February 27, 2009

Joe Schaller

First of all I apologize to all my faithful readers for the year by year decline in material. At one time I was doing at least three features a week including college rankings, European league rankings and updates on every NBA team throughout the season. If there is any consolation it is in the increased accuracy of TPR as I have tweaked the formula and improved defensive ratings. I will still put my formula up against anybody's for correlation to actual point differential and wins.

A friend of mine dropped off a copy of the New York Times magazine with the cover feature of The No-stats Allstar by Michael Lewis. The spotlight was on Shane Battier, supposedly a never-appreciated marginal athlete whose statistics were below average yet when on/off ratings were applied suddenly was one of the most valuable players in the league.
The article was long and tedious.

Here are the yearly TPR of Battier from his rookie year through last season; 82, 89, 109, 107, 105, 107, 103. My TPR scale has 85 as a starter and 110 as allstar level. A few years ago Battier was my Top Defender. Contrary to Mr. Lewis' assertion statistics do indicate that Shane is a borderline allstar however the NBA culture just doesn't know how to interpret statistics. If not for my accurate values for steals, turnovers, 3-point adjustment, game pace, team defense and one on one defense Shane's TPR would likely be about 30 points lower. On/off ratings are an exciting statistical component in sports however until the basics of statistical analysis are attained there will continue to be confusion over player value.

The Marbury Syndrome; It seems like a decade since I coined The Marbury Syndrome. For the first seven years of Stephon Marbury's career he was a media darling. He scored a lot of points and that seemed to be all that mattered yet when percentages are scrutinized we see a .434% career and .326% for 3-pointers. If you don't know these are indicators of a poor scorer you shouldn't be associated with media or management.

71, 72, 84, 91, 114, 94, 109, 120, 124, 84, 87, 68 are the progression of Stephon's TPR from his rookie season on- these are not TPR you would expect of a star. Oddly enough it was in '03-'04 and '04-'05 when he had allstar caliber performances yet the media turned on him right when he was peaking.

Turnovers; In baseball runs, hits and errors head the box scores. If a player commits errors it draws a lot of attention. Errors lose games. In football interceptions and fumbles are huge. Possession is tremendously important and those who turn the ball over often do not last very long.
In the NBA turnovers were not even acknowledged until 1977. It's truly astonishing if you think about it. In my TPR formula losing possession of the ball and giving it directly to the opponent is double the negative of just a missed field goal attempt. At least you can still recover the missed shot.
Even though turnovers have been tabulated since '77 the NBA culture never grasped their significance. They are almost totally ignored by commentators and analysts- kind of like missed field goal attempts.

Marbury not only missed a lot of shots he also turned the ball over at a rate of 3.79 per 48" for his career- not good. Why should the mainstream pundits have to be reminded that missed shots and turnovers add up to losses? It's mind boggling.

The Marbury Syndrome is essentially those two statistical negatives, low shooting percentage and high turnovers. Here are some notable overrated NBA players who have suffered from TMS.

Allen Iverson; career fg% .425, 3-pt% .313, 4.18 to/48". That he received an MVP award is testimony to just how clueless the sportswriters are. Even when the Sixers made it to the finals it was through fortunate events. He's made his living at the free throw line however he's a ball hog and I doubt if his teammates have ever appreciated his selfishness.

Jerry Stackhouse; career fg% .409, 3-pt% .306, 4.32 to/48"

Baron Davis; career fg% .410, 3-pt% .323, 3.79 to/48"

Jason Williams, Antoine Walker, Stephen Jackson; Willi Vanilli's first two seasons were one of the best examples of a slobbering love affair by the media of a guy who was all show and no substance. He was one of the worst ballhandlers in the league and the pundits went gaga over his behind the back antics. When he finally developed into a good point guard the media ignored him.

Kobe? The Marbury Syndrome can be applied to the greats also. Comparisons of Kobe Bryant to Michael Jordan are almost ludicrous. Not counting his last season MJ's worst fg% was .482. Kobe's best season is .471. Assist/turnover and steal/turnover also favor MJ.
A more appropriate comparison would be of Kobe to D-Wade (career .481%). Currently I give the edge to D-Wade.

Addition by subtraction; We've seen the negative impact of Allen Iverson and I think Tracy McGrady can be included as his game has slipped to unacceptable levels since his struggles with injuries. Fact is their teams are actually better without them. It's a team game.

The NBA prefers to ignore negatives however there should be some prominent stats at the end of every season exposed for all to see- missed field goal attempts and turnovers.

Statistical revolution? I think not. We still haven't got past the basics. No wonder general managers make such bonehead moves. Joe Dumars was one held in high esteem and lost almost all of it when he traded away Chauncey Billups. What was he thinking?

Shane Battier's stats? It's no mystery to me.

Total Performance Ratings-- since 1996

1. Scoring
   
2. Scoring Efficiency
   
3. Ballhandling
   
4. Rebounding
   
5. Disruptive Defense
   
6. One on one Defense
   
7. Team Defense
   
8. Team Game Pace
   
9. Schedule Strength
   
10. Projected Improvement or Decline
    
11. Teams Wins Adjustment

Ratings indicate productivity per minute played. See my feature "The TPR Formula" for more information.

• Joe Schaller
  
• 505-722-3103
  
• schaller_6@msn.com