April 28, 2009

Joe Schaller

'08-'09 MOST IMPROVED

This is the toughest award to gauge. The reason is that per game stats improve primarily due to more playing time. Productivity per minute is the true measure of improvement. The bias for this award falls on the obscure players who've come out of nowhere while established stars are rarely given consideration.
Previous award winners have been questionable and some such as Zach Randolph have shown no improvement.

My own formula for Most Improved considers performance from previous three or two seasons with over half the weight falling on the most recent season. Productivity per minute is the criteria rather than minutes played or per game stats. Sophomores are ineligible since improvement is the natural expectation, otherwise Kevin Durant would likely have topped my list. I have also added a minutes played bonus since it is easier to maintain a high TPR over a short period.

When searching for the most improved players the best place to start is the teams which most exceeded expectations. Those would be Cleveland, Orlando, Atlanta, Portland and Denver.
After last years 182 TPR put him in a virtual 3-way tie for MVP honors with CP3 and KG it's hard to imagine Lebron James vying for this award however his 220 TPR while playing a huge number of minutes puts him in the stratosphere of TPR challenging his Airness himself for possibly the greatest season in NBA history.
In his third season Brandon Roy as well has elevated his game into superstar status.

If not for his injury halfway through the season Jameer Nelson would easily have won top honors assuming he kept up his spectacular scoring and 152 TPR. I am a little surprised he wasn't given more consideration despite the injury.

For those who voted for Devin Harris you can mark them down on your clueless list. They obviously jumped on the early bandwagon when Devin was lighting things up however failed to recognize his cooling off to a 123 TPR which wasn't a large leap from his previous 103 and 110 TPR.

Although not on the list Cleveland also benefited from improved TPR of Andersen Varejao, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Delonte West and Mo Williams.

TPR scale: 180+ MVP, 140+ superstar, 110+ allstar, 85+ starter, 65+ bench

minutes_'09 Most Improved__TPR_08_07_06_score

1. +13.5_Lebron James Cle_____220_182_156_172_60.9
   
2. +11.5_Brandon Roy Por______163_124__99_---__59.3
   
3. -8.5__Jameer Nelson Orl_____152__95__76_106_52.4
   
4. +5.5__Danny Granger Ind____150_113__88__95_52.2
   
5. +11___Dwight Howard Orl____164_140_121__97_47.1
   
6. -.5___Joel Przybilla Por______102__65__40__81_41.4
   
7. +1.5__Marvin Williams Atl____109__82__60__52_39.1
   
8. +1.5_Charlie Villanueva Mil___110__73__75__79_37.6
   
9. +3___Nate Robinson NY_____123__94__95__60__37.1
   
10. +7___Nene Hilario Den______126_105__89__79__36.3
    
11. +2.5_Steve Blake Por_______105__80__70__76__30.9
    
12. +.5__Hakim Warrick Mem_____96__75__69__41__28.6

Fluke year? John Hollinger has analyzed the fluke year phenomenon in which players suddenly display exceptional talents during a season after years of mediocrity and then recede back to normal levels for the remainder of their careers. This could be a fluke season for some on my list and it is something I now consider when doing my preseason projections.

Total Performance Ratings-- since 1996

1. Scoring
   
2. Scoring Efficiency
   
3. Ballhandling
   
4. Rebounding
   
5. Disruptive Defense
   
6. One on one Defense
   
7. Team Defense
   
8. Team Game Pace
   
9. Schedule Strength
   
10. Projected Improvement or Decline
    
11. Teams Wins Adjustment

Ratings indicate productivity per minute played. See my feature "The TPR Formula" for more information.

• Joe Schaller
  
• 505-722-3103
  
• schaller_6@msn.com