July 22, 2009

Joe Schaller

I was looking at the clutch stats on 82games.com and trying to interpret them into something more meaningful when I realized I could put my own formula to work and obtain something showing per minute productivity in crunch time.

The stats provided were for the fourth quarter or overtime with less than five minutes left and neither team ahead by more than five points. Points, field goal attempts, free throw attempts, rebounds, assists, turnovers, blocks and steals are listed for each player however the ranking was for total points scored per 48 minutes of clutch time regardless of how many field goal and free throw attempts it took nor how many turnovers were committed.

When adding and subtracting the appropriate amounts for each stat we obtain an accurate indicator of productivity per minute of clutch time.

Points per 48" clutch time 2008-09

1. Kobe Bryant 56.7
   
2. Lebron James 55.9
   
3. Carmelo Anthony 54.4
   
4. Dwyane Wade 49.2
   
5. Chris Paul 45.1
   
6. Nate Robinson 44.6
   
7. Brandon Roy 42
   
8. Dirk Nowitzki 40.9
   
9. Paul Pierce 39.1
   
10. Zach Randolph 38.3

TPR clutch time rating 2008-09

1. Lebron James 221
   
2. Carmelo Anthony 189
   
3. Kobe Bryant 180
   
4. Chris Paul 161
   
5. Dwyane Wade 150
   
6. Brandon Roy 141
   
7. Jason Terry 133
   
8. Eddie House 132
   
9. Zach Randolph 132
   
10. Nate Robinson 130
    
11. Vince Carter 127
    
12. Jameer Nelson 123

Points per 48" clutch time 2007-08

1. Lebron James 56
   
2. Kobe Bryant 51.8
   
3. Dirk Nowitzki 46
   
4. Manu Ginobili 43.3
   
5. Ben Gordon 42
   
6. Kevin Durant 41.8
   
7. Michael Redd 41.6
   
8. Steve Nash 40.3
   
9. Amare Stoudemire 39.8
   
10. Stephen Jackson 39.7

TPR clutch time rating 2007-08

1. Lebron James 192
   
2. Manu Ginobili 182
   
3. Dirk Nowitzki 150
   
4. Chris Paul 144
   
5. Kobe Bryant 143
   
6. Baron Davis 137
   
7. Steve Nash 136
   
8. Stephen Jackson 136
   
9. Kevin Durant 131
   
10. Amare Stoudemire 131

Game winning shots; For the past five seasons and playoffs as of February '09 82games.com tabulated FGM, FGA, FTM, FTA, assists and turnovers with 24 seconds or less left in the game, team with the ball is either tied or down by 1 to 2 points. The rankings were for FGM.

Leading "Game Winning Shot" Players

1. Lebron James 17
   
2. Vince Carter 16
   
3. Ray Allen 15
   
4. Kobe Bryant 14
   
5. Carmelo Anthony 13
   
6. Allen Iverson 13
   
7. Ben Gordon 12
   
8. Dirk Nowitzki 12
   
9. Joe Johnson 12

A missed shot is a terrible thing; When missed shots, missed free throws, assists and turnovers are figured into the equation the rankings change dramatically with surprising results.

TPR "game winning shot" rankings

1. Paul Pierce 14.9
   
2. Ricky Davis 12.6
   
3. Travis Outlaw 12
   
4. Mehmet Okur 10.7
   
5. Flip Murray 10.2
   
6. Gilbert Arenas 9.8
   
7. Tim Duncan 9.3
   
8. Rashard Lewis 9.2
   
9. Caron Butler 8.9
   
10. Peja Stojakovic 8.7

Where's Kobe?; He has been labeled The Closer and he consistently takes more shots in crunch time than any other player however the stats reveal a horrid 25% field goal average and alone in the lead for turnovers. His 12 for 15 for free throws is strong however his score in my "winning shots" rankings was below minus 13 and one of the very worst.
Kobe may be a great player however as these results prove his reputation as a clutch player has been exaggerated.

Total Performance Ratings-- since 1996

1. Scoring
   
2. Scoring Efficiency
   
3. Ballhandling
   
4. Rebounding
   
5. Disruptive Defense
   
6. One on one Defense
   
7. Team Defense
   
8. Team Game Pace
   
9. Schedule Strength
   
10. Projected Improvement or Decline
    
11. Teams Wins Adjustment

Ratings indicate productivity per minute played. See my feature "The TPR Formula" for more information.

• Joe Schaller
  
• 505-722-3103
  
• schaller_6@msn.com