July 24, 2009

Joe Schaller

Playoff power ratings: When doing my regular season projections I calculate expected minutes along with expected TPR. My playoff projections differ by giving equal weight to the five positions and the bench counting as the sixth position- essentially a short rotation rating.

Odom's impact; There are still moves to be made, primarily in the West, and teams such as Portland and Utah are still in limbo and have possibilities of moving up on my list. I've calculated Utah without Boozer and Portland with their current roster. The Blazers had players such as Blake, Przybilla and Roy on my most improved list, fluke years likely by Blake and Przybilla, and there will likely be a decline from those two.
The Lamar Odom saga may likely determine whether the West will be once again dominated by the Lakers or will be closely contested. Without Odom the Lakers will be sorely weakened on the bench so I have calculated their rating with and without Odom. The without rating puts them with an equal score as the Spurs who have quickly regrouped with the additions of Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess.

The Eastern Big Three; Remember the Western big three of Dallas, Phoenix and San Antonio? It's shifted to the East now and Boston, Cleveland and Orlando should once again be far ahead of the pack.
Cleveland will have to count on Lebron James repeating one of the greatest seasons in NBA history. I don't think Shaq is going to make much of a difference and with Boston and Orlando making strong offseason moves I rate the Cavs third in the East.
Boston's looking very good with their acquisition of Rasheed Wallace however Orlando has said to heck with the luxury tax and signed both Brandon Bass and Marcin Gortat (in your face, Cuban) on top of their huge upgrade of Vince Carter from Hedo Turkoglu. Orlando now becomes the favorite in the East.

Playoff power ratings for 2010

• Lakers with Odom___125
  
• Orlando Magic______124.2
  
• Boston Celtics______122.5
  
• Lakers without Odom_121.7
  
• San Antonio Spurs___121.7
  
• Denver Nuggets____118.3
  
• Cleveland Cavaliers__116.7
  
• Utah Jazz_________113.3
  
• Dallas Mavericks____112.5
  
• Portland Blazers____112.5

Total Performance Ratings-- since 1996

1. Scoring
   
2. Scoring Efficiency
   
3. Ballhandling
   
4. Rebounding
   
5. Disruptive Defense
   
6. One on one Defense
   
7. Team Defense
   
8. Team Game Pace
   
9. Schedule Strength
   
10. Projected Improvement or Decline
    
11. Teams Wins Adjustment

Ratings indicate productivity per minute played. See my feature "The TPR Formula" for more information.

• Joe Schaller
  
• 505-722-3103
  
• schaller_6@msn.com