September 7, 2009

Joe Schaller

REGULAR SEASON WINS FOR WESTERN CONFERENCE

For my yearly win projections I estimate TPR for each teams eight man rotation and then estimate their minutes played. Some teams tend to go with a short rotation while others such as San Antonio give their stars plenty of rest during the season to maintain strength for the rigorous playoffs.

After I obtain a TPR for each club I take the average of all teams as a 41 win baseline and add or subtract a win for each .9 TPR differential. My 41 win baseline TPR for the Western Conference is currently 105 and 104 for the East. My calculations indicate a slightly more competitive West.

Here is an example of my team projections using the Denver Nuggets.

TPR scale: 180+ MVP, 140+ superstar, 110+ allstar, 85+ starter, 65+ bench

minutes_Denver Nuggets_TPR

• 2800_Carmelo Anthony__140
  
• 2500_Chauncey Billups__125
  
• 2500_Nene Hilario_____ 125
  
• 2500_J R Smith________125
  
• 1800_Chris Anderson___ 110
  
• 1800_Kenyon Martin_____95
  
• 1300_Carter/Lawson____75
  
• 1200_Renaldo Balkman__105
  
• team TPR 117.2
  
• projected wins 54.5

I am currently assuming Ramon Sessions will sign with Minnesota for $4 million a year which may well be the steal of the off-season. The T-Wolves may not be as bad as many expect.
I do not regard Allen Iverson to have much of an impact whereever he goes unless he embraces the role of sixth man.
Which Baron Davis shows up will be pivotal for the Clips yet I see them struggling once again.
Kevin Durant should continue his rise to superstardom yet the Thunder direly need one of their other youngsters to step up to allstar status.
Stephen Jackson would like to be traded to a contender and the Warriors might want to oblige him if there are any takers out there- I doubt it. Jackson's projected 85 TPR is the lowest of the clubs top nine players yet he will likely jack up the most shots. Subtract him and this club might make the playoffs.

Key players; Ty Lawson, Jordan Farmar, Baron Davis, Julian Wright, Greg Oden, Drew Gooden, Carlos Boozer.

Projected Wins in West

• LALakers____58
  
• San Antonio__55.5
  
• Denver______54.5
  
• Portland_____53.5
  
• Utah________51.5
  
• Dallas_______49
  
• New Orleans_47.5
  
• Phoenix______44
  
• Golden State__35
  
• Houston_____35
  
• Minnesota____33
  
• OK City______32
  
• Memphis_____31
  
• LAClippers____30.5
  
• Sacramento___21.5

Best bet for a first round match-up; Lakers and Suns.

Total Performance Ratings-- since 1996

1. Scoring
   
2. Scoring Efficiency
   
3. Ballhandling
   
4. Rebounding
   
5. Disruptive Defense
   
6. One on one Defense
   
7. Team Defense
   
8. Team Game Pace
   
9. Schedule Strength
   
10. Projected Improvement or Decline
    
11. Teams Wins Adjustment

Ratings indicate productivity per minute played. See my feature "The TPR Formula" for more information.

• Joe Schaller
  
• 505-722-3103
  
• schaller_6@msn.com