October 7, 2009

Joe Schaller

We've come a long ways. The early internet years provided some unusual and interesting websites. Before signing with rivals.com I designed my own using Microsoft Publisher and was quite proud of my achievement, being in my mid-forties and not exactly computer savvy. It eventually caught the attention of Rivals scout, Scott Pelleur.
There was another website with player ratings which caught my attention- alleyoop.com by none other than John Hollinger, now an icon.

Despite zero income I feel fortunate to have kept my internet forum. The emergence of 82games.com was another landmark in statistical analysis. I have recently stumbled upon basketball-reference.com as another resource, statistical and entertainment. Although it still has a long way to go I believe the statistical revolution has had a significant impact on player personnel decisions. Some owners and general managers- and much of the media- still dwell in the dark ages though.

Annual Vegas pilgramage; I'll be heading to the Hilton sports book in Las Vegas where they offer the over/under lines for NBA season wins, one of the only locations that do so. Upon my return I will compare their projections to mine in my annual Las Vegas Challenge.

With the influence of John Hollinger's PER projections I have slightly tweaked some of my own projections since the last power ratings to obtain my final numbers- that shows how much respect I have for Hollinger.

Eastern Conference projected wins

• Cleveland____60.5
  
• Orlando______60
  
• Boston______55
  
• Atlanta______41
  
• Philadelphia__40.5
  
• Chicago_____38.5
  
• Detroit______38.5
  
• Washington__38.5
  
• Toronto_____38
  
• Miami_______37.5
  
• Indiana_____31.5
  
• Charlotte____30
  
• New York____29.5
  
• Milwaukee___28
  
• New Jersey__27

Western Conference projected wins

• LALakers____59.5
  
• San Antonio__55
  
• Denver______54
  
• Portland_____53
  
• Utah________51
  
• Dallas_______49.5
  
• New Orleans__48.5
  
• Phoenix______43
  
• Houston_____37.5
  
• Golden State__35
  
• Minnesota____33
  
• OK City______33
  
• Memphis_____31.5
  
• LAClippers____31
  
• Sacramento__21.5

Total Performance Ratings-- since 1996

1. Scoring
   
2. Scoring Efficiency
   
3. Ballhandling
   
4. Rebounding
   
5. Disruptive Defense
   
6. One on one Defense
   
7. Team Defense
   
8. Team Game Pace
   
9. Schedule Strength
   
10. Projected Improvement or Decline
    
11. Teams Wins Adjustment

Ratings indicate productivity per minute played. See my feature "The TPR Formula" for more information.

• Joe Schaller
  
• 505-722-3103
  
• schaller_6@msn.com